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A Re-Balancing of India’s Great Power Relations
Context:
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s participation in the sixth Quad Leaders’ Summit in Wilmington, Delaware, U.S., on September 21, 2024, has raised hopes for strengthening security cooperation among the “four leading maritime democracies in the Indo-Pacific.”
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- India is currently engaged in a delicate balancing act—protecting its interests in negotiations with China while keeping the U.S. involved in maintaining a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.
- The core idea behind the Quad (comprising Australia, Japan, India, and the U.S.) is the creation of a strategic alliance based on shared principles, interests, and goals that would not only strengthen each nation individually but also collectively counter challenges to the global order.
- In this context, India’s relationship with Russia takes on added significance, given Moscow’s opposition to the Quad.
India’s Role as a Peacemaker:
- India, as an aspiring global power, has shown a willingness to shoulder the responsibility of peace efforts, whether as a dialogue facilitator or interlocutor, if not a full mediator.
- Ukraine has often called upon India to help mediate the conflict.
- Several factors have driven India’s involvement in global peacemaking initiatives, with the most significant being its “Russia dilemma.”
- While India’s strategic partnership with the U.S. is relatively new, its ties with Russia have endured for over six decades.
- India is not willing to abandon the military advantages these relations provide.
- However, with Russia’s deepening ties to China in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, India is concerned that Moscow is becoming too closely aligned with Beijing, which could negatively affect New Delhi’s interests.
Balancing the West and Russia:
- The West may have accepted India’s purchase of discounted Russian oil and its silence on the Ukraine war, but India’s independent foreign policy comes at a cost.
- Some in the West view India as indifferent to key issues in the remaking of the global order post-Ukraine.
- By playing a meaningful role in efforts to resolve the conflict, India hopes to recalibrate its relationships with both the West and Russia.
- Critics may see this as an attempt to appease Washington, but others argue that India is reinforcing its strategic autonomy and positioning itself as a “Vishwa Bandhu” (friend to the world).
Russia’s Close Ties with China:
- India’s foreign policy has been characterised by a friendly and sometimes transactional relationship with the U.S., and a pragmatic, non-ideological approach to Russia.
- However, under Putin, Russia’s foreign policy has focused on strengthening ties with China and promoting a multipolar world order to counter U.S. dominance.
- While Putin sees both China and India as close allies, India’s strategic priorities do not align fully with either country.
- Russia’s growing closeness to China has not been accompanied by equal attention to India, leading New Delhi to view Moscow’s usefulness as increasingly diminished.
- China’s support for Pakistan, particularly in elevating terrorism as a tool of statecraft, exacerbates India’s security challenges.
- From India’s perspective, Russia’s prioritisation of its relationship with China, at a time when India-China relations remain strained, is troubling.
- This deepening Russia-China partnership complicates Russia’s ability to manage its relations with India, especially amid the ongoing Ukraine war.
Rebalancing Great Power Relations:
- India’s rebalancing of its great power relations does not necessarily mean a full-fledged alliance with the U.S.
- Instead, it requires India to move beyond nostalgic memories of Russia’s past support, such as during the 1971 Bangladesh war.
- Some doubt India’s leverage in resolving the Ukraine conflict, given the entrenched positions of both Russia and Ukraine, but this should not deter India from attempting to mediate.
- Ultimately, while the U.S. seeks a weakened Russia, India is not willing to accept such an outcome.
- It remains essential for New Delhi to safeguard the gains of its two-decade-long strategic partnership with the U.S., even as it navigates the complexities of its relationships with Russia and China.
- India recognises the structural challenges in its ties with China and is not committed to improving relations at a high strategic cost.