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Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah
Context:
The recently brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in South Lebanon appears to be holding for now.
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- Mirroring elements of the 2006 United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, the agreement mandates Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli forces retreating south of the Blue Line, and the Lebanese Army being the sole armed force in the buffer zone. Both parties have 60 days to comply.
- A key addition to the arrangement is the inclusion of the United States and France in overseeing implementation alongside Lebanon, Israel, and UNIFIL.
- While it does not require Hezbollah’s complete disarmament north of the Litani, Israel maintains its right to act if the group breaches the agreement, a position rejected by the Lebanese government.
Resolution 1701
UNSC Resolution 1701, passed on August 11, 2006, sought to end hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel and establish a long-term solution, including a buffer zone and a permanent ceasefire. The resolution followed the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which resulted in over 1,000 Lebanese and 170 Israeli deaths.
Key Provisions
- Disarmament of Armed Groups: Calls for the disarmament of all non-state armed groups in Lebanon, leaving weapons and authority solely under the Lebanese State.
- No Foreign Forces Without Consent: Ensures no foreign troops operate in Lebanon without the government’s approval.
- Control of Arms Supply: Prohibits the sale or transfer of arms to Lebanon without government authorisation.
- Landmine Maps: Requires Israel to provide maps of remaining landmines in Lebanon.
- Blue Line Buffer Zone: Establishes a secure area between the Blue Line and the Litani River, free of armed groups except for Lebanese authorities and UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon).
- UNIFIL Expansion: Authorises up to 15,000 peacekeepers to monitor the ceasefire, assist Lebanese troops in securing the area, and support the return of displaced people.
Details of the Current Ceasefire Proposal
The new ceasefire, aligned with Resolution 1701, calls for a 60-day cessation of hostilities.
Key Provisions
- Hezbollah Withdrawal: Hezbollah fighters must retreat at least 40 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border.
- Israeli Withdrawal: Israeli ground forces are required to withdraw from Lebanese territories occupied since October 2023.
- Monitoring Mechanism: The Lebanese military, UN peacekeepers, and a multinational committee will oversee Hezbollah’s movements south of the Litani River to prevent regrouping.
- Israeli Conditionality: Israel reserves the right to resume military operations if the agreement is breached.
Why Did Israel Agree to the Ceasefire?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu highlighted three primary reasons for agreeing to the ceasefire:
- Focus on Iran: Redirecting attention and resources to counter Iranian influence.
- Replenishment: Allowing the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) time to regroup and restock.
- Front Management: Separating the Hezbollah and Hamas conflicts to avoid simultaneous battles.
- Additional factors influencing the decision include:
- Internal Discontent: Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, supported by IDF leadership, had advocated for a ceasefire to avoid strategic overreach. Despite being dismissed, Gallant’s perspective gained traction.
- Cost of Engagement: Israel’s history in Lebanon has shown that prolonged military operations, while tactically successful, often result in strategic setbacks and bolster Hezbollah’s local support.
- Hezbollah’s Resilience: Despite heavy losses, Hezbollah retained the capability to strike Israel, demonstrating its strength with extensive rocket fire just before the ceasefire.
Implications for the Israel-Lebanon Border
- The ceasefire underscores the deep insecurity Israel faces post-October 7, which shattered its perception of invulnerability.
- Although international criticism, including accusations of genocide and calls for withdrawal by global bodies, has intensified, Israel remains determined to prioritise its security.
- The current situation reflects the aftermath of the 2006 conflict, where similar arrangements were implemented.
- However, the addition of the U.S. and France to the oversight mechanism marks a slight shift, though without commitments of combat troops.
- Hezbollah remains deeply rooted in Lebanon’s political and social structure, and its leadership has vowed to rebuild and continue resistance.
Broader Regional Impact:
- Iran’s Position: Hezbollah’s acceptance of U.S. involvement suggests coordination with Tehran, which is balancing its regional strategies with efforts to engage the U.S. for sanctions relief and strengthen ties with Arab neighbors.
- Iran has momentarily secured its strategic buffer in Lebanon.
- Israel’s Strategic Shift: With the Lebanon front temporarily pacified, Israel can now focus its military efforts on Hamas in Gaza and Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
- Netanyahu’s warning to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad signals potential escalation in these areas.
