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China’s Low-Fertility Trap
Context:
China’s low-fertility trap is a complex issue with multiple causes, including the legacy of the one-child policy. Despite the policy being abandoned in 2016, its effects continue to influence fertility rates and population dynamics. Here are the key points:
Causes of Low Fertility Rates
- The one-child policy significantly reduced China’s fertility rate. It led to a permanent shift in family planning norms, making one child the norm in many families.
- Economic development and urbanisation have also contributed to lower birth rates. As people become more affluent and educated, they tend to have fewer children. Similar trends are seen across East Asia, including Japan’s TFR below 1.3 and South Korea’s below 0.8.
- Cultural preferences for sons over daughters led to a significant number of female foetuses being aborted, further skewing the sex ratio in China.
- The rapid ageing of China’s population is a significant issue.
- The working-age population is expected to fall sharply, leading to a greater burden on the elderly population.
Effects of the One-Child Policy
- The policy has left China with a permanently skewed population structure, with a large number of one-child families and a significant gender imbalance.
- The policy has led to an elder care crisis, as many families are left to care for their ageing parents alone.
- This burden is particularly heavy for migrant workers who often support their parents in urban areas.
- Chinese women have low fertility intentions. Many desire one or no children, citing the costs of child-rearing as a primary reason.
Current Efforts to Address the Issue:
- In 2021, China introduced a three-child policy to encourage higher birth rates. However, this policy has not yet shown significant results, with birth rates declining.
- Experts suggest a multifaceted approach that includes measures like Automation to boost productivity, immigration to replenish the workforce, and enhanced eldercare support to address demographic challenges.
- Understanding and addressing cultural and social factors, such as the influence of the one-child policy on family planning norms, is crucial for any effective policy.
Conclusion
- China’s fertility rate is currently below replacement level, making it difficult to increase birth rates.
- China’s population is expected to decline significantly in the coming decades, with the working-age population falling sharply.
- This will lead to a greater burden on the elderly population and economic challenges.
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