EAC-PM’s Working Paper on Migration Trend
Context:
A recent working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), titled 400 Million Dreams, highlights changing migration patterns in India, estimating a decline in domestic migration by 11.78% between 2011 and 2023.
Key Findings
Decline in Migration Numbers
- The number of domestic migrants has decreased from 45.57 crore in 2011 to 40.20 crore in 2023, marking an 11.78% decline.
- The migration rate, which was 37.64% in 2011, has now reduced to 28.88% in 2023.
Reasons for Decline in Migration
- Improved Services: Better access to education, healthcare, infrastructure, and connectivity in source regions.
- Economic Opportunities: More job opportunities available in or near major migration source areas.
Shifting Migration Patterns
- Major Outbound States (2011 Census): Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal.
- Major Inbound States (2011 Census): Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.
- Changes in 2023:
- New Entrants: West Bengal and Rajasthan among top states attracting migrants.
- Decline in Migration Share: Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh saw reduced incoming migration.
Characteristics of Migration
- Short-Distance Migration Dominates: More than 75% of migration occurs within 500 km from the origin, supporting the Gravity Model of Migration.
- Influence of Push and Pull Factors: Aligns with Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration, which explain migration based on economic and social drivers.
Methodology Used in the Study
The working paper employed three high-frequency and granular data sets to estimate migration trends:
- Indian Railway Unreserved Ticketing System (UTS) Data:
- Tracks passenger volumes for short-term and long-distance migration.
- The UTS data indicates a decline in domestic migration by approximately 11.78% between 2011 and 2023. Shows reduced migration patterns post-pandemic.
- Telecom Roaming Data (TRAI):
- Analyses seasonal trends in migration.
- High migration movement in April-June and November-December.
- Rise and fall of Visitor Location Register (VLR) and Total Subscribes indicate the Rise and fall of migrations.
- District-Level Banking Data:
- Compares savings-to-current account ratio to determine economic activity.
- Lower ratios in cities like Mumbai (0.56), Delhi (2.24), Bengaluru (2.21) indicate high economic activity and migration attraction.
Challenges in Measuring Migration
- Delayed Census 2021 has affected data accuracy.
- Other reports, such as the MoSPI’s Migration in India (2020-21) and MoHUPA’s Working Group on Migration (2017), also highlight migration trends but lack real-time insights.
- The study proposes alternative methods for migration tracking using technology-based data sources.
Definition and Significance of Migration
Migration refers to the movement of people from one place to another, either within a country (internal migration) or across national borders (international migration). It plays a crucial role in economic development, urbanisation, and demographic shifts, influencing labor markets, social structures, and public policies.
Importance of Measuring Migration
Accurate measurement of migration patterns is essential for planning infrastructure, social services, and employment policies. It helps governments and researchers understand population distribution, regional disparities, and the impact of migration on economic growth.
General Concepts of Migration
Types of Migration
- Internal Migration – Movement within a country, including rural-to-urban, urban-to-rural, and inter-state migration.
- International Migration – Movement across national borders for employment, education, or asylum.
Data Sources for Measuring Migration
- Census Data – The decennial census provides macro-level migration trends.
- Surveys – National Sample Survey (NSS), Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), and other household surveys offer detailed migration insights.
- Population Registers – Administrative records tracking demographic changes over time.
Case Study: Migration to and from Major Cities
Urban centers such as Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Kolkata serve as key economic hubs, attracting millions of migrants from rural and smaller urban areas. The primary drivers of in-migration include:
- Employment opportunities in industries like IT, finance, manufacturing, and construction.
- Better infrastructure and amenities such as healthcare, education, and transport.
- Social networks that facilitate job search and settlement.
However, these cities also experience out-migration, driven by:
- High cost of living, especially housing and daily expenses.
- Congestion and pollution, which reduce quality of life.
- Economic downturns or job losses, prompting return migration to native places.
- Emerging job markets in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, leading to a shift in migration patterns.
For instance, cities like Pune, Ahmedabad, and Lucknow are now attracting skilled professionals as industries decentralise, creating a new migration trend of reverse migration from metros to smaller urban centers.
Theoretical Frameworks for Migration Measurement
- Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration (1885) – One of the earliest theories, suggesting that migration is governed by factors such as distance, economic opportunities, and demographic characteristics.
- Push-Pull Model – unemployment, poor living conditions, natural disasters
- Pull factors – better jobs, education, infrastructure
Temporal Dimensions in Migration Measurement
- Short-term Migration (Seasonal & Circular Migration)
- Common among agricultural laborers, construction workers, and factory workers.
- Seen in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, and Jharkhand, where workers migrate seasonally to cities like Mumbai and Delhi.
- Medium-term Migration
- Includes migration for higher education, fixed-term contracts, or temporary jobs abroad.
- Example: IT professionals working on onsite projects in the U.S. or Europe.
- Long-term (Permanent) Migration
- Includes rural-to-urban migration leading to permanent settlement in cities.
- International diaspora migration, such as the Indian-origin population settling in Canada, the UK, and Australia.
