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India and West Asian Crisis
Context:
For the second time since April, tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated, bringing them to the brink of a full-scale war. Recently, Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel, which has vowed to retaliate.
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- In April, Iran responded to an Israeli strike in Damascus with a missile attack on Israel.
- This week’s attack follows a similar pattern seen in both April and in January 2020, when Iran retaliated for the assassination of Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani by targeting a US military base.
- These actions, while causing minimal damage, signal Iran’s response strategy, and Israel’s potential retaliation this time could lead to a broader conflict.
India’s Role in the Crisis:
- Though India has not yet offered to mediate, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has engaged with both sides.
- Over the last 10 days, he has spoken with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
- The PM met Abbas on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on September 23, where he expressed concern over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and reaffirmed India’s commitment to peace.
- In a separate conversation on September 30, he also told Netanyahu that terrorism has no place in the world and emphasised the need to prevent regional escalation, secure the release of hostages, and restore peace and stability.
- For India to play a more active mediating role, it would need not only communication channels but also considerable influence with both Israel and Iran.
India’s Delicate Position:
- India has significant interests in the West Asian region, and the Ministry of External Affairs has expressed concerns, emphasising the importance of preventing the conflict from escalating into a wider regional crisis and calling for issues to be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy.
- India’s challenge lies in balancing its strong strategic ties with both Israel and Iran:
- Israel: India’s relationship with Israel has grown considerably in recent years, especially in the areas of defence and security, with Israel becoming one of India’s key defence suppliers. Israel’s support during the Kargil War remains an important part of this relationship.
- Iran: On the other hand, Iran has long been a critical supplier of crude oil to India. Iran’s Chabahar port is strategically and economically important for India as well.
India’s Stakes in the Region:
- Indian Community: Around 18,000 Indians reside in Israel, with an additional 5,000-10,000 in Iran, and approximately 9 million in the broader West Asian region.
- Energy Security: The region provides 80% of India’s oil supplies, and a broader conflict would likely increase energy prices.
- Additionally, investment plans from major Arab nations in India’s economy could be disrupted.
- Indian Investments: India has invested heavily in its relationships with key countries in West Asia, including Iran, Israel, and major Arab states.
- New Delhi is keen to ensure that the ongoing India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) initiative, which holds strategic and economic importance, is not derailed by regional instability.
Other Key Players in the Region:
- Qatar: It plays a pivotal role as a regional mediator, engaging with all sides and providing financial support to Palestine.
- Qatar’s influence extends through its media arm, Al Jazeera, and it has been a key player in mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas.
- Egypt: It shares a border with Gaza and Israel, has taken a strong stance against terrorism and has been involved in ceasefire initiatives, particularly concerned about a refugee crisis from Gaza.
- Saudi Arabia: It has been positioning itself as a regional leader, pursuing peace and connectivity initiatives, though its complex relationship with Shia-majority Iran presents challenges.
- Ongoing peace talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been stalled by the recent violence.
- The UAE: Focused on its economic future, the UAE is another key player pushing for peace in the region to safeguard its prosperity.
- It was the first Gulf state to normalise relations with Israel in 2020.
- Turkey: It has been involved through backchannel diplomacy, maintaining communication with both Israel and Iran, and playing a role in mediating after previous tensions.
- USA: Historically, it is a major mediator in the region and has been trying to prevent further escalation, but there is a significant lack of trust between the US and Iran.
- China: It has been positioning itself as a potential mediator and peacemaker in the region, driven by its geopolitical and economic interests.
What are the Options Available to India?
Active Diplomatic Engagement
- Mediation Role: It should consider leveraging its friendly relations with both Iran and Israel to facilitate dialogue.
- Utilising Communication Channels: India should maintain open lines of communication with all parties involved, including regional players like Qatar and Egypt, who have historically played mediating roles.
Humanitarian Focus
- Addressing Humanitarian Concerns: This could involve collaborating with international organisations to provide aid and support for civilians affected by the conflict.
- Public Statements: India should continue to issue public statements that emphasise the importance of protecting civilians and upholding human rights during conflicts.
Strengthening Regional Ties
- Engagement with Arab Nations: Strengthening the ties can help India gain leverage in discussions surrounding the crisis.
- Economic Diplomacy: This includes securing energy supplies while supporting initiatives that foster economic cooperation among West Asian countries.
Security Cooperation
- Naval Presence: India should continue to engage in joint exercises and cooperative security measures with both Iran and Israel to ensure stability in critical waterways like the Strait of Hormuz.
- Counter-Terrorism Collaboration: This would not only address security concerns but also build trust among nations.
Long-Term Strategic Planning
- Diversifying Energy Sources: Investing in renewable energy projects and exploring partnerships with other countries can enhance energy security.
- Sustained Engagement in Peace Initiatives: India should commit to being an active participant in broader peace initiatives in the region, such as those led by international organisations or coalitions that focus on long-term stability and conflict resolution.