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India-China LAC Agreement: Key Developments and Future Pathways
Context:
The recent India-China disengagement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) represents a crucial step in easing tensions that have persisted since the 2020 border standoff. This agreement, focused on Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh, highlights broader geopolitical and geostrategic considerations as both nations aim to manage military, diplomatic, and economic challenges.
Disengagement at Depsang and Demchok:
- Ground Realities of Disengagement: Indian and Chinese troops are dismantling temporary structures in Depsang and Demchok, with disengagement expected to complete by October 29, 2024. Patrolling will resume in these areas to prevent further face-offs.
- Patrolling Arrangements: Patrolling will return to pre-2020 norms, with India regaining access to critical Patrolling Points (PPs) in Depsang, including PPs 10 to 13.
Strategic Importance of Depsang and Demchok
- Significance of Patrolling Points: Depsang’s proximity to the Karakoram Pass and the Saltoro Ridge makes it critical for India’s defence, especially concerning Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) and the Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road.
- Grazing Grounds and Local Community Impact: Restrictions in Demchok have impacted local pastoral communities. The agreement addresses grazing rights for the Changthang (Rebo) community.
Friction Points and Buffer Zones at the LAC:
- Buffer Zones and Disengagement
- Friction Points: Sensitive areas like Pangong Tso, Gogra-Hot Springs, and Galwan have witnessed military face-offs between India and China. Buffer zones have been established to de-escalate tensions.
Arunachal Pradesh: Yangtse and Other Flashpoints
- Agreement on Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh: A new understanding allows Chinese patrols to continue in the Yangtse area, avoiding direct confrontations.
- Historical Clashes in the Region: Yangtse, a contested area, saw significant clashes in December 2022. Despite the agreement, both sides maintain patrols along their perceived lines.
- Indian Concerns: Buffer zones, despite their temporary nature, have been established in areas previously patrolled by Indian forces, raising concerns over territorial control.
- Strategic Friction Points: Depsang and Demchok
- Depsang Plains: Chinese troops have blocked Indian patrols, complicating disengagement due to the area’s strategic importance for both nations.
- Demchok: Like Depsang, it holds critical logistical and military significance, and disengagement has been slow.
- Buffer Zone Challenges
- Prolonged Patrol Restrictions
- Indian Troop Movement: Buffer zones restrict Indian patrols, raising fears of losing de facto control. This opens the possibility of China consolidating territorial gains over time.
- Long-term Control Concerns
- Impact on Future Negotiations: Prolonged restrictions may normalise Chinese presence in these areas, complicating future efforts to reclaim control and setting dangerous precedents.
- Salami-Slicing Strategy
- Incremental Encroachment: China’s slow, step-by-step territorial advances through unpatrolled areas and infrastructure development may shift the status quo, benefiting China in the long term.
How Did the Agreement Come About?
- Series of Diplomatic and Military Talks: The agreement was reached after sustained dialogue between diplomatic and military leaders, finalising disengagement details on October 21, 2024.
- Resolution After Galwan Clash of 2020: Following the 2020 Galwan clash, troop build ups led to heightened tensions. The agreement aims to restore trust and return to pre-2020 conditions along the LAC.
Reasons for Disengagement
- Shifting Global Power Dynamics
- U.S.-China Rivalry: China faces pressure from the U.S. and its alliances like the Quad, pushing China to reduce tensions with India to focus on the larger strategic threat.
- India’s Global Role: India’s growing engagement with Western powers and leadership in global forums makes it diplomatically stronger. China seeks to prevent India from moving deeper into anti-China blocs.
- Economic Realities
- Post-COVID Challenges: Both India and China face economic pressures, needing to avoid military standoffs that drain resources.
- Trade Dependencies: Despite rivalry, their economic ties are vital, with trade exceeding $100 billion. Disengagement reduces risks to this relationship.
- Diplomatic Outreach
- India’s Diplomacy: India’s global standing post-Galwan clash has risen, and China aims to counterbalance India’s growing ties with the West.
- China’s Global Image: China wants to showcase diplomatic conflict resolution to improve its international reputation.
Strategic Impact of Disengagement:
- Indo-Pacific Implications: Stabilised India-China relations give India room to pursue strategic goals in the Indian Ocean without direct conflict with China.
- Impact on India’s Global Role: Strengthened strategic autonomy allows India to balance relations globally without being over-reliant on any block.
- Stability in the Himalayan Region: Infrastructure Development: India can focus on improving roads and logistics along the LAC.
- Local Populations: Reduced military presence could ease tensions for local communities near the LAC.
The Way Forward: De-escalation and Patrolling Norms:
- Next Steps in the Process: After disengagement, focus shifts to de-escalation and troop reduction, with the aim of removing buffer zones and resuming regular patrols.
- Restoring Trust and Buffer Zone Concerns: Restoring trust is essential for long-term resolution, but experts warn that buffer zones may compromise India’s territorial control.
Potential for Political Resolution: Recent talks between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping have opened new diplomatic channels. Special Representatives are expected to meet soon to further boundary discussions.
