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India-China Relations: A Gradual Normalisation Amid Global Turmoil
Context:
India and China, two major Asian powers, have long experienced strained relations marked by unresolved border disputes and geopolitical competition. However, recent developments indicate a cautious effort to normalise ties amid ongoing global upheavals.
Background: Tensions Along the LAC and Recent Developments (Late 2024):
- Tensions Along the Line of Actual Control (LAC)
- In April-May 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China attempted to alter the status quo along the LAC in eastern Ladakh. The standoff, marked by incidents like the Galwan Valley clash, brought India-China relations to their lowest point in decades.
- Despite the global pandemic, India responded with a strong military build-up, matching China’s aggression and sending a clear message about its commitment to safeguarding sovereignty.
- Recent Developments in 2024: Efforts to normalise relations have gained momentum, marked by significant agreements and renewed dialogue.
- Depsang and Demchok Agreement: In October 2024, both nations agreed to patrol their respective perceptions of the border, a critical step in reducing tensions.
- BRICS Summit Meeting: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping met after five years during the BRICS summit in Russia, signaling a revival of high-level engagement.
- Special Representatives Mechanism: The 23rd meeting between NSA Ajit Doval and Wang Yi marked the resumption of dialogue after a five-year gap. Discussions covered border peace, resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage, border trade, and collaboration on trans-border river data sharing.
Key Drivers of Change:
- Indian Perspective:
- Strategic Diplomacy: India’s consistent public diplomacy underscored its willingness to engage while maintaining military readiness.
- Military Infrastructure: India’s extensive investments in border infrastructure and troop mobilisation ensured preparedness.
- Firm Stance: By linking the normalisation of bilateral relations to peace along the LAC, India maintained clarity in its approach.
- Chinese Perspective
- Global Distractions: China’s focus shifted due to conflicts in West Asia and Europe, reducing its capacity to sustain prolonged standoffs.
- Reassessment of PLA Capabilities: Analysts suggest that President Xi Jinping overestimated the PLA’s ability to achieve territorial gains, leading to a strategic climbdown.
India’s Tough Stance: A Decisive Factor
India’s unwavering position that border peace is a prerequisite for normal relations was pivotal. High-level political engagements were limited, ensuring the issue stayed prominent without appearing conciliatory. This approach was complemented by sustained lower-level diplomatic and military engagements, creating channels for dialogue without compromising India’s position.
India’s Multi-Pronged Strategy/Balanced Approach in the Border Standoff:
- Multilateral Diplomacy: India leveraged platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to engage with China, promoting dialogue while demonstrating resolve.
- Institutional Mechanisms
- Working Mechanism for Cooperation and Coordination (WMCC): Diplomats met 17 times to keep communication open.
- Military Talks: 21 rounds of discussions between commanders helped manage on-ground situations.
- Strength and Resolve
- Troop Mobilisation: India matched China’s build-up along the LAC.
- Infrastructure Development: Projects like the Umling La Pass road, Atal Tunnel, and Sela Tunnel enhanced India’s logistical capabilities.
- Budgetary Support: The 2024 Union Budget allocated ₹6,500 crore to the Border Roads Organisation, a 30% increase from 2023.
Impact of India’s Balanced Approach:
India’s strategy combined persuasive diplomacy with hard power, ensuring a dual focus on resolution and preparedness. Examples include:
- Persuasion: The BRICS summit meeting and Kailash Mansarovar discussions reflect India’s commitment to dialogue.
- Hard Diplomacy: The occupation of the Kailash Range in 2020 and covert operations by the Special Frontier Force showcased India’s readiness for offensive measures.
This approach projected India’s resilience, safeguarding sovereignty while maintaining engagement channels.
Key Lessons from the India-China Standoff:
- Strategic Initiatives for Border Security
- Vibrant Villages Programme (VVP): Launched in 2023, this initiative improved infrastructure in 136 border villages, connecting them via over 100 all-weather roads at a cost of ₹2,420 crore. The 2024 budget allocated ₹1,050 crore to enhance livelihoods and reduce youth migration.
- Andaman & Nicobar Islands Upgrades: Strengthened military infrastructure in the Indian Ocean Region, including advanced surveillance and strategic operations support.
Way Forward and Future Implications:
- Public Sentiment and Policy Direction: Indian public opinion strongly supports a firm stance against Chinese aggression. Policymakers must balance readiness with selective engagement, ensuring that concessions do not undermine sovereignty.
- Navigating Fragile Normalisation
- Focus on Concrete Actions: Sustained progress depends on resolving troop de-escalation and border delineation.
- Balancing Hard and Soft Power: Continued military preparedness, combined with diplomatic outreach, is essential.
- Strategic Reset: Both nations must carefully rebuild trust while addressing underlying tensions. India’s emphasis on long-term readiness and calibrated diplomacy will be key to maintaining stability.
