India-Sri Lanka Relations Amid Political Shifts: An Analysis
This analysis draws on ex-Foreign Secretary, Shyam Saran’s op-ed article captioned “Maldives Model in Lanka” published in The Indian Express on September 24, 2024. It argues that Sri Lanka’s new political leader, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, is expected to maintain India’s role as a key partner, recognising its significant role in Sri Lanka’s economic and security development, and demonstrating a willingness to constructively collaborate with New Delhi.
Introduction
Sri Lanka, an island nation located off the southeastern coast of India, has entered a new political era with the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) as its 9th president on September 23, 2024. AKD’s victory is notable because it shifts the political landscape, bringing to power the left-wing Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) for the first time. This political shift is likely to have a profound impact on Sri Lanka’s relationship with India, its closest neighbour and a key strategic partner. The newly elected leader has promised reforms in economic policies, tackling corruption, and improving the quality of life for the nearly 25% of Sri Lankans who live in poverty. This analysis looks at India-Sri Lanka relations, which have traditionally been shaped by mutual economic and security concerns, in the changed political landscape: the ties may now face new challenges and opportunities under AKD’s leadership.
Sri Lanka’s Political Shift: A New Chapter
The rise of Anura Kumara Dissanayake to the presidency of Sri Lanka signals a departure from the traditional dynastic politics that have long dominated the country, particularly by families like the Rajapaksas. The JVP, originally a revolutionary Marxist group, has gradually transformed into a mainstream political force, driven by public dissatisfaction with previous administrations. The “Aragalaya” protest movement, which opposed the corrupt leadership of the Rajapaksa family, played a pivotal role in AKD’s rise to power, reflecting the people’s desire for change. As president, AKD faces the difficult task of managing Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, addressing corruption, and uniting a diverse coalition within his government.
Shyam Saran, a key observer of the region’s politics, points out that despite this political shift, AKD has acknowledged India’s vital role in Sri Lanka’s security and economic stability. In fact, Dissanayake has expressed a clear understanding of India’s contributions, especially the significant $4 billion economic support India provided during Sri Lanka’s financial crisis in 2020. This acknowledgment is a positive sign for the future of India-Sri Lanka relations, as it reflects AKD’s intention to maintain strong ties with India.
India-Sri Lanka Relations: A History of Cooperation
Historically, India and Sri Lanka have shared close cultural, economic, and security ties. As Sri Lanka’s largest trading partner, India has invested heavily in the country, supporting projects ranging from renewable energy to infrastructure. India has been instrumental in helping Sri Lanka recover from its economic crisis, providing assistance during critical periods of instability. However, the new government under AKD could alter the dynamics of this relationship, as it reviews several key projects, including the Adani Group’s wind power initiative.
Shyam Saran emphasises that while AKD’s Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna party has historically been viewed as anti-India, the new president’s recent statements indicate a more balanced approach. During a visit to India in early 2024, Dissanayake met with India’s External Affairs Minister and National Security Advisor, showcasing a willingness to engage and maintain cordial relations with New Delhi.
Economic Ties: A Pillar of Stability
One of the cornerstones of the India-Sri Lanka relationship is their deep economic interdependence. India is a major trade partner and investor in Sri Lanka, with projects like the Adani Group’s solar and wind power developments aimed at boosting Sri Lanka’s energy capacity. These projects, particularly the renewable energy initiatives, are crucial for Sri Lanka as it seeks to address its growing energy demands while ensuring sustainable development.
While economic relations between the two countries remain strong, AKD’s government has raised concerns over certain projects, particularly the Adani initiative, which he has criticised for its potential environmental impact and transparency issues. Nonetheless, Shyam Saran argues that the economic partnership between India and Sri Lanka is likely to remain resilient due to the long-standing interdependence between the two nations. Economic ties often act as stabilisers in diplomatic relations, helping smooth over political differences.
Challenges from China’s Growing Influence
A critical factor in the evolving India-Sri Lanka relationship is the growing presence of China in Sri Lanka. China has significantly expanded its influence through investments in infrastructure, including the strategically important Hambantota Port, which it secured as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China’s increasing role in Sri Lanka has raised concerns in India, as it challenges India’s historical influence over its southern neighbour. Sri Lanka’s dependence on Chinese loans for large infrastructure projects, combined with its economic troubles, has left it vulnerable to China’s growing geopolitical footprint in the region.
According to Saran, AKD’s government, while critical of corruption in Chinese-backed projects, does not plan to sever ties with China. Instead, Dissanayake aims to maintain a neutral foreign policy, avoiding strong alignment with either China or India. This balancing act presents a challenge for India, which must find ways to counter China’s influence without alienating Sri Lanka.
Security Concerns and Regional Stability
Beyond economic considerations, India and Sri Lanka share deep security interests. Both countries are concerned with maintaining stability in the Indian Ocean region, which is crucial for maritime trade routes and regional security. India’s support for Sri Lanka during its internal conflicts, as well as joint efforts to combat terrorism, have historically strengthened this partnership.
While AKD’s government has expressed caution over certain Indian-backed projects, such as the Adani wind power initiative, he has reassured India that Sri Lanka will not allow its land or sea to be used in ways that threaten India’s security. These reassurances are crucial given India’s concerns about China’s growing military and economic activities in the region.
Navigating the Triangular Relationship: India, Sri Lanka, and China
Sri Lanka’s geopolitical position in the Indian Ocean places it at the crossroads of the interests of two major powers: India and China. Smaller nations like Sri Lanka often attempt to balance their relationships with larger powers to maximise their own benefits. As Sri Lanka’s new leader, AKD must find ways to ensure that his country’s interests are not compromised by either China or India.
For India, this means strengthening its own engagement with Sri Lanka through economic, security, and environmental cooperation. India must be proactive in offering competitive alternatives to Chinese projects, particularly in areas like infrastructure, energy, and climate change. Besides, India’s diplomatic efforts must focus on maintaining its influence in Sri Lanka without appearing overly aggressive, as this could push Sri Lanka further toward China.
Opportunities for Deeper Cooperation
Despite the challenges, AKD’s election presents new opportunities for deeper cooperation between India and Sri Lanka. Climate change is an area where the two countries can work together, particularly given the vulnerability of island nations like Sri Lanka to rising sea levels and extreme weather events. By investing in renewable energy, disaster preparedness, and environmental protection, India can position itself as a responsible and supportive neighbour.
Additionally, India can play a key role in helping Sri Lanka recover from its economic crisis by increasing investment in critical sectors such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Shyam Saran highlights that India’s long-term commitment to Sri Lanka’s economic stability can serve as a buffer against political shifts, ensuring a more resilient partnership moving forward.
Conclusion
The political shift in Sri Lanka with the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake marks a new chapter in India-Sri Lanka relations. While AKD’s government may present challenges, particularly with regard to economic projects and China’s growing influence, the strong economic and security ties between India and Sri Lanka provide a foundation for continued cooperation. By focusing on mutual benefits, addressing common challenges like climate change, and maintaining a balanced approach to China, India can ensure that it remains a key partner for Sri Lanka. Moving forward, both countries will need to adapt to the changing political landscape, but with the right strategy, this partnership can continue to thrive in a rapidly evolving region.
