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India’s Path to Viksit Bharat and Net-Zero
Context:
Research by The Fletcher School (Tufts University) and Worley reveals the need to align fast growth with green growth.
India’s Economic and Environmental Challenges
- GDP Growth Slows: India’s economy, which had been growing rapidly, has seen a slowdown. This raises concerns about the long-term goal of transforming India into a “Viksit Bharat” (developed nation) by 2047.
- Sustaining over 8% annual GDP growth is essential to achieve this goal.
- Green Growth Goals: Alongside fast growth, India aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2070. This requires significant near-term achievements, such as a 50% reduction in emissions intensity, the creation of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity, and $290 billion in investments for wind and solar energy by 2030.
The Intersection of Fast Growth and Green Growth
- The Tension Between Growth and Sustainability: Fast growth in India has been heavily dependent on carbon-intensive industries, such as coal. However, continuing along this path could lead to climate risks that could undermine growth. These risks include:
- Agriculture Impact: Climate-related risks could reduce agricultural productivity, leading to a 2.8% loss in GDP by 2030.
- Heat and Productivity Loss: Extreme heat could reduce labour productivity by $220 billion by 2030, with losses rising even further by 2050.
- Export Penalties: Carbon penalties on Indian goods could cost the country $150 billion annually by 2040.
- Fossil Fuel Dependence: India’s reliance on imported fossil fuels leaves it vulnerable to global price fluctuations, geopolitical instability, and supply chain disruptions.
Benefits of Green Growth
- Economic Opportunities: Green growth can contribute to India’s fast growth, creating up to 50 million jobs by 2070. It has the potential to generate trillions of dollars in economic value by 2030 and 2070.
- Health and Energy Security: Green growth also improves public health and strengthens energy security, which helps India be more resilient to global economic shocks and enhances its geopolitical standing.
- Holistic Strategy for Green Growth: A comprehensive approach that combines green initiatives with fast economic growth has been reflected in the 2025 Union Budget, which prioritises both. Key steps include:
- Nuclear Energy: A plan to develop 100 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2047.
- Solar and Battery Manufacturing: Support for solar equipment production and grid-scale battery technology.
- Recycling: Incentives to boost scrap material and critical mineral recycling.
Key Areas for Action
- Renewables & Climate Adaptation: Build renewable capacity and invest in ecosystems (transmission, storage, carbon capture, etc.).
- Renewable Capacity and Climate Adaptation: India must ramp up its renewable capacity and also invest in climate adaptation. This involves developing the necessary infrastructure (e.g., transmission networks, storage, carbon capture) while integrating public-private partnerships to support these initiatives.
- Demand Side Considerations: Addressing the needs of farmers (45% of India’s workforce) for climate-resilient infrastructure and sustainable farming practices is crucial. Additionally, micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), which contribute 30% of India’s GDP, need access to green technologies and finance.
- Managing Disruptions: As India transitions to a greener economy, some sectors, especially those reliant on coal, may experience slowdowns. Support for reskilling workers and rebuilding economies in coal-dependent regions will be vital to ensure a smooth transition.
International Collaboration and Technology
- Global Expertise: India’s green growth journey will require international collaborations to address challenges like green hydrogen, grid modernisation, and carbon capture. International financial institutions can help structure green bonds and blended finance models to support these efforts.
- Skill Development: The renewables sector will require 3.7 million skilled workers by 2030. Collaborative efforts in skill-building and re-skilling will be essential to meet this demand and foster a workforce capable of supporting India’s green economy.
