India’s Trade Performance Surges in 2024
Context:
India’s trade sector demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2024, with exports growing by 6.3% for the calendar year, significantly outpacing the global trade growth rate of 3.7%, according to a recent report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
UNCTAD
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) is a key intergovernmental body established in 1964, focused on promoting trade and development, particularly in developing countries. It operates under the auspices of the United Nations and has its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. As of now, UNCTAD comprises 195 member states, which participate in its activities aimed at addressing global economic inequalities. The organisation regularly convenes conferences every four years to discuss progress and set future agendas. The most recent conference was held virtually in October 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNCTAD regularly publishes a variety of significant reports that address key issues in trade and development. Some of the major reports are: Trade and Development Report, World Investment Report, Least Developed Countries Report, Digital Economy Report, Economic Development in Africa Report, Review of Maritime Transport.
More Findings
- Trade Drivers: Alongside the United States and China, India played a crucial role in driving global trade, which expanded by nearly $1.2 trillion.
- While trade in goods recorded moderate growth, services led the expansion, contributing $700 billion to the global trade increase, compared to $500 billion from goods.
- India’s Exports: India’s total exports of goods and services soared to a record $817.4 billion in 2024, up from $769 billion in 2023, marking a significant milestone in the country’s external trade.
- The first three quarters of the 2024-25 financial year witnessed historic export levels, with the third quarter achieving the highest-ever recorded exports.
- Strong Trade Resilience: Despite persistent global challenges such as supply chain disruptions and economic slowdowns in key markets, India’s trade resilience remains strong.
- The steady growth in both goods and services exports underscores the country’s strengthening position in global trade and its adaptability to evolving economic conditions.
Global Trade Trends and Future Outlook
- Stability: The UNCTAD report indicates that global trade remained stable in early 2025. However, mounting geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies, and trade disputes pose potential risks of disruption in the near future.
- Imbalance: Trade imbalances widened in 2024, approaching levels last seen in 2022.
- The United States continued to record the largest trade deficit, while China maintained the highest trade surplus, with both trends intensifying over the year.
- Among other major economies, the European Union reversed its earlier deficits and posted a notable trade surplus in 2024, largely driven by high energy prices.
- Meanwhile, India, Japan, and the United Kingdom remained among the economies with significant trade deficits.
- Broader Dynamics: These shifting trade patterns reflect broader global economic dynamics, including supply chain realignments, fluctuating commodity prices, and policy shifts in key markets.
In October 2024, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) revised its projection for global merchandise trade volume growth in 2024 to 2.7%, a slight increase from the earlier estimate of 2.6%. However, the forecast for 2025 was adjusted downward from 3.3% to 3.0%, signalling tempered expectations for trade expansion in the coming year. The WTO’s trade projection report for 2025 is scheduled for release in mid-April.
