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Iran to Hold Nuclear Talks with European Powers in Geneva
Context:
Recently, Iran said that it would hold nuclear talks in the coming days with the three European countries that initiated a censure resolution against it adopted by the UN’s atomic watchdog.
Context of the Talks:
- UN Censure Resolution: The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently passed a resolution criticising Iran for insufficient cooperation, supported by the UK, France, Germany, and the US.
- Iran’s Response: Tehran announced measures including activating advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium at higher levels.
Key Issues to be Addressed:
- Nuclear Program: Discussions on limits to uranium enrichment and compliance with the 2015 nuclear pact.
- Regional Topics: Broader discussions will include issues related to Palestine and Lebanon.
Strategic Importance of Timing:
- Trump’s Return: Talks are happening ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.
- European Diplomatic Efforts: European powers aim to engage Trump’s administration by demonstrating willingness to negotiate tough measures with Iran.
Iran’s Nuclear Program and Recent Developments:
- Uranium Enrichment: Iran continues enrichment to 60%, near the 90% level required for nuclear weapons, exceeding the 3.67% limit in the 2015 deal.
- Advanced Centrifuges: Iran has activated 5,000 advanced centrifuges to expand its enrichment capacity.
Historical Context:
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Challenges Ahead:
- Distrust on Both Sides: Iran criticises Europe for aligning with the US sanctions regime, while Western powers doubt Iran’s peaceful intentions.
- Broader Middle East Tensions: Iran’s regional actions and alliances complicate efforts to isolate the nuclear issue from geopolitical concerns.
Implications for the US:
- Potential for New Deal: Trump has signaled a need for a new deal, acknowledging the grave consequences of failure.
- Impact on Middle East Stability: The outcome of these talks could influence tensions in the region, including responses to Iran’s nuclear advancements.
Next Steps:
- The meeting will mark the first direct talks in two years, but expectations are low for significant breakthroughs.
- The IAEA has been tasked to provide a comprehensive report within three months on Iran’s compliance, potentially triggering broader sanctions if violations persist.
