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Non-Negotiable Military Power
Context:
The year 2024 has been marked by significant geopolitical developments, impacting India’s security and foreign policy landscape.
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- From a thaw in Sino-Indian relations to escalating violence in Jammu and Kashmir, and key technological advancements in global conflicts, the events of this year underscore the challenges and opportunities for India in navigating its strategic priorities.
Easing Tensions with China Amid Persistent Challenges
- Progress: India and China have made notable progress in addressing their longstanding border standoff, achieving a partial but significant agreement in October 2024.
- This agreement restored mutual patrolling and grazing rights in the contentious areas of Demchok and Depsang, marking a milestone in bilateral negotiations.
- Previous agreements had resulted in mutual withdrawals and buffer zones but fell short of reinstating patrolling rights.
- Meeting in Beijing: For the first time in five years, the Special Representatives (SRs) of both nations met in Beijing.
- However, the divergent interpretations of the meeting’s outcomes highlight the deep-seated structural issues that continue to plague Sino-Indian relations.
- Central to these tensions are differing views on the Indo-Pacific region. While Beijing favors a hierarchical approach, New Delhi advocates for a multipolar order.
- Proactive Approach: India must maintain strategic pressure on China to ensure that Beijing’s current cooperative stance persists.
- The broader power struggle in the Indo-Pacific will require India to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding its interests.
The Two-Front Security Dilemma
- Surge in Terrorist Activities: While tensions with China eased, Jammu and Kashmir saw a surge in terrorist activity, with sniper attacks targeting Indian Army patrols and assaults on civilians involved in infrastructure projects.
- This uptick coincides with reduced India-China tensions, suggesting potential coordination between Beijing and Islamabad against India.
- Dual Challenge: India faces a dual security challenge, with simultaneous threats from both China and Pakistan.
- Stabilising one front often leads to instability on the other, necessitating constant readiness. The ongoing volatility underscores the reality of two active military fronts, varying in intensity but persistent in hostility.
Insights from the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict
- The recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah offers valuable lessons for India.
- Israel’s success in decapitating Hezbollah’s leadership and neutralising a significant number of its fighters was rooted in strategic deception and intelligence exploitation.
- By leveraging vulnerabilities created during Hezbollah’s deployment in the Syrian civil war, Israel disrupted its adversary’s Command, Control, and Communications (C3) systems.
- For India, Israel’s approach highlights the importance of patience and opportunism in addressing security threats.
- Strategic intelligence and innovative military tactics can yield significant advantages in conflicts with adversaries.
Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to evolve, showcasing the adaptability of both nations.
- Russia has strengthened its defenses by hardening and dispersing critical logistics and command nodes, while Ukraine has demonstrated resilience through small-unit tactics and effective C3 systems.
- However, Russia’s numerical and material superiority has enabled steady progress, underscoring the decisive role of military capability in sustained conflicts.
Implications for India
- As 2025 approaches, India must take stock of the shifting global geopolitical landscape.
- The strengthened positions of Moscow and Tel Aviv highlight the enduring importance of robust military capabilities and the motivation to fight.
- For India, this underscores the urgency of implementing critical defense reforms.
- Institutional, doctrinal, and procedural changes are essential to fully capitalise on the current geopolitical moment, which appears favorable to India.
- Without these reforms, New Delhi risks falling short in addressing its complex security challenges and asserting its strategic influence on the global stage.
India’s ability to navigate this dynamic environment will depend on its capacity to adapt, innovate, and strengthen its military and diplomatic tools. As the world moves into 2025, India’s leadership must seize this opportunity to shape its destiny amid a rapidly evolving international order.
