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Shrinking Maoist Strongholds
Context:
Recently, eight security personnel were killed in Bijapur, Chhattisgarh, when Maoists detonated an improvised explosive device (IED).
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- This is the deadliest attack in over 600 days, following an IED blast in Dantewada in April 2023 that killed 10 District Reserve Guard personnel and a civilian.
- The most severe attack before that was in April 2021, when 22 personnel were killed in Sukma.
- Despite reduced Maoist influence over the past decade, the attack highlights the persistent threat in areas where they remain active.
Trends in Maoist-Related Violence
- Casualties in Chhattisgarh: There is a decline in incidents with massive casualties since 2010.
- The deadliest attack occurred in April 2010 in Dantewada, where 76 security personnel were killed.
- Fatalities in Recent Years: The fatalities are declining among civilians and security forces across India in Maoist-related incidents.
- In 2023, 24 security personnel were killed, the second-lowest number since 2000.
- This year, nine personnel have died so far, surpassing one-third of last year’s total.
- Insurgent Losses: 2023 was the third deadliest year for Maoists, with 296 insurgents killed.
- The deadliest year was 2006, with 343 Maoists killed.
Geographical Concentration
- Bastar Region as a Stronghold: Most recent incidents occurred in south Chhattisgarh, particularly in the Bastar region.
- 30% of left-wing extremism-related deaths in Chhattisgarh between 2020 and 2025 were in Bijapur.
- Over 65% of fatalities occurred in districts such as Sukma, Dantewada, Narayanpur, Kanker, and Bastar.
- State-wise Decline: 80% of left-wing extremism-related deaths in 2024 occurred in Chhattisgarh.
- Other affected States like Andhra Pradesh/Telangana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha, and West Bengal have seen a significant decline in incidents.
Factors Behind Declining Influence
- Geographical Contraction: Maoist influence has shrunk significantly over the past decade.
- Tribal communities, once a major support base, have increasingly distanced themselves from the Maoist cause.
- Electoral Trends: Decline in NOTA (None of the Above) votes in Maoist-affected areas reflects this shift.
- In the 2023 Chhattisgarh elections, only 1.3% of voters chose NOTA, compared to higher shares in the past.
The latest attack in Bijapur serves as a stark reminder of the continuing threat posed by Maoists, even as their geographical and operational influence has waned. While fatalities among security forces and civilians have decreased, sustained vigilance and efforts are essential to address this long-standing issue.
