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The Geopolitical Outlook for India in the year ahead
Context:
India finds itself at a critical juncture in its history, positioned as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and politically stable nations. While India continues to project an atmosphere of peace, this stands in stark contrast to the profound shifts unfolding in the global geopolitical and economic landscape.
India’s Strategic Position in Global Politics (2024):
- Global Political Uncertainty: The year 2024 saw significant global political instability, particularly in Europe and West Asia. Concurrent conflicts, such as the Gaza crisis and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, are reshaping the global order and pose future risks to peace and stability. Despite this, India has managed to navigate through this turmoil, maintaining political stability.
- Rising Conflicts and India’s Stability: While the global situation remains tumultuous, with crises like the Gaza conflict and the Ukraine war, India has emerged as a stabilizing force. India’s political resilience allows it to maintain its position in a rapidly changing world.
India’s Role Amidst Shifting Global Dynamics:
- Economic Growth: India is a leading force in the global economy, with one of the fastest-growing economies. This positions India as a critical player in shaping global economic trends.
- Political Stability: Amidst political upheaval in many parts of the world, India has remained politically stable, demonstrating resilience in maintaining a consistent and peaceful trajectory.
- Emerging Global Alliances: India is increasingly a part of emerging new economic and political alliances. As global dynamics shift, India’s influence in shaping future global policies grows.
Challenges for India in 2025:
a ) Challenges with China:
Border Conflict:
- India’s most pressing challenge is its ongoing border dispute with China, particularly at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh.
- Recent disengagement agreements and diplomatic talks, including the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, are positive steps but do not resolve the core issues. India must remain vigilant as the conflict remains unresolved.
China’s Efforts to Outmaneuver India:
- Rising Cooperation with Global South: China has strengthened its security cooperation with nations in the Global South, aiming to sideline India. China’s growing influence threatens India’s regional dominance.
- SCO Summit Obstacles: At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Pakistan, China capitalized on India’s absence, further reducing India’s voice in the forum, which is increasingly viewed as anti-Western.
- APEC Summit Challenges: Similarly, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Peru, President Xi Jinping strengthened ties with Japan, a nation traditionally seen as a rival to China, undermining India’s influence.
b) Challenges with South Asian Neighbors:
- Bangladesh: India faces increasing hostility from Bangladesh following the ousting of the Sheikh Hasina regime, with a caretaker government that is openly adversarial to India. This marks a shift in regional dynamics, leaving India isolated in South Asia.
- Nepal and Sri Lanka: Both Nepal and Sri Lanka appear to be “fair weather friends” of India, showing fluctuating support based on the political climate. Their positions remain uncertain, and India’s influence in these countries is under pressure.
- Bhutan: While Bhutan has traditionally been an ally, the current King’s increasing focus on balancing relations with China suggests a shift in the dynamics, diminishing India’s influence in the region.
- Maldives and Afghanistan: The Maldives’ position remains uncertain, and Afghanistan no longer figures prominently in India’s foreign policy considerations, making South Asia increasingly unpredictable for India.
- Pakistan: As always, Pakistan remains a significant adversary, continuing its hostile stance towards India.
c) Situation in West Asia and threats coming from West Asia :
- Syria: The ousting of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a significant geopolitical shift.
- The rise of the Sunni group, Hayat Tahir al Shams (HTS), is reshaping the region, with potential consequences for India.
- The fall of Assad, previously seen as a stabilizing force aligned with Iran, shifts the power dynamics in favor of Sunni-majority groups, altering India’s interests in the region.
- Decline of Shia Power:
- With the loss of the Assad regime, Iran’s influence across West Asia is diminishing. The Shia world, including militias such as Hezbollah, is weakened, reducing Iran’s ability to shape the regional order.
- India, which has historically maintained a balance between Shia and Sunni populations, faces new challenges in adapting to these changes.
- Israel and Türkiye’s Gains:
Israel is strengthening its position in the region, despite its actions in Gaza, while Türkiye is emerging as a key player. The shifting alliances in West Asia could significantly affect India’s strategic calculus. - Russia’s Diminishing Influence:
The fall of the Assad regime has also weakened Russia’s influence in West Asia. However, Russia’s continued partnership with Türkiye and pragmatic approach could allow it to regain some leverage in the region, but it marks a loss for India’s strategic interests.
d) The Growing Digital Threat for India:
- Exponential Growth of Cyber Threats:
In 2025, digital threats are expected to reach new heights. India faces a growing risk from cyber attacks, which have escalated dramatically in recent months. Both major companies and government institutions have been targeted by denial of service and ransomware attacks, with this trend expected to grow exponentially in the coming years. - Convergence of Technologies and Infrastructure Threats:
The convergence of various technologies presents a new and significant threat to national infrastructure. The security of critical infrastructure is at risk as these digital threats evolve, challenging India’s preparedness.
