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Tough choices for Russia- China in West Asia Turmoil.
Context:
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s Politburo chief and negotiator, in Tehran has escalated tensions between Israel and Iran, bringing them to the brink of full-scale war.
- The region is bracing for a severe Iranian response, anticipated to be more violent than previous exchanges. Notably, Iran’s key allies, Russia and China, have remained unusually distant and ambiguous amid the escalating conflict.
Reasons for strategic ambiguity of Russia and China:
- Regional Stability:For China and Russia, it is crucial that Iran avoids a full-scale war with Israel to maintain regional stability and prevent further strain on their resources.
- Nuclear Concerns: Both Russia and China, despite their alignment with Iran, share concerns with the West about Iran’s potential nuclearization, preferring an Iranian leadership that avoids crossing the nuclear threshold.
- Economic Interests:
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- Oil and Trade: China is a major purchaser of Iranian oil, and Russia is involved in modernising Iran’s air defence systems. Direct military involvement could risk these economic ties.
- Geopolitical Interest:
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- Arab World Relations: Both Russia and China maintain important relationships with Arab nations, which could be jeopardised if they overtly support Iran. Balancing these relationships is crucial for their broader geopolitical influence.
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- Russia’s Priorities: Engaged in the Ukraine conflict, Russia likely lacks the resources or strategic interest to divert significant military attention to defending Iran against Israel.
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- China’s Priorities: China, focused on managing its relations with the U.S. and regional powers, would find direct involvement in an Israel-Iran conflict complicating these relationships.
Convergent interests of Russia and China over Iran:
Support for Iran
- Economic Cooperation with China:
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- Oil and Energy Trade: According to data from the European research firm Kpler, approximately 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports were directed to China.
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- Investment and Infrastructure: The 25-year Cooperation Program, part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), includes substantial investments in Iran’s oil, gas, petrochemicals, and infrastructure, potentially injecting $300-$400 billion into Iran’s economy.
- Strategic and Diplomatic Influence:
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- Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: The 2021 Iran-China partnership enhances China’s influence in the Middle East and provides Iran with a powerful ally in regional and international issues.
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- UN Security Council Support: As a permanent member, China’s ability to veto resolutions benefits Iran by protecting it from detrimental international sanctions.
- Strategic and Security Cooperation with Russia:
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- Military and Defense Cooperation: Iran and Russia conduct joint military exercises, strengthening their military alignment and regional security cooperation.
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- Nuclear and Energy Cooperation: Russia’s involvement in Iran’s nuclear program and energy sectors solidifies its role as a key partner in Iran’s development.
- Geopolitical Alignment:
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- Counterbalancing Western Influence: Iran and Russia collaborate to challenge U.S. dominance and promote a multipolar world order.
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- Regional Security Initiatives: Both nations work together on security efforts to stabilise the Middle East and Central Asia, addressing threats from extremist groups.
Divergent interests of Russia and China in West asia:
- Economic Interests:
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- Energy and Resources: Russia and China both compete for influence in West Asia’s energy markets. Russia’s dominance sometimes clashes with China’s need to diversify its energy sources.
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- Trade Routes: The development of alternative trade routes like the Middle Corridor, which bypasses Russia, can reduce Central Asia’s reliance on Russian transit routes, potentially weakening Russia’s economic influence.
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- Middle Corridor:The Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), is an emerging trade route that has gained significant attention in recent years.
- The Middle Corridor is a network of transportation and logistics infrastructure connecting Asia to Europe through Central Asia, the Caucasus, Turkey, and Eastern Europe.
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- Strategic and Geopolitical Interests:
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- Regional Dominance: Power asymmetry between China and Russia creates divergent interests, particularly as China expands its influence in Central Asia, traditionally dominated by Russia.
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- Security Concerns: While both seek border stability, China focuses on its western regions, such as Xinjiang, while Russia’s concerns lie more in the Caucasus and southern borders.
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- Influence in Central Asia: China’s growing economic presence in Central Asia challenges Russia’s historical dominance, leading to competition for influence.
- Diplomatic and Political Interests:
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- Global Governance: As permanent members of the UNSC, Russia and China sometimes differ in their priorities and approaches, especially when their national interests or alliances are at stake.
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- Conflict Resolution: Russia tends to use military intervention, as seen in Ukraine, while China prefers diplomatic and economic strategies to resolve conflicts in West Asia.
Book Review:”The Comrades and the Mullahs: China, Afghanistan and the New Asian Geopolitics” by Ananth Krishnan and Stanly Johny:It is a meticulously researched and thought-provoking book that delves into the complex geopolitical dynamics involving China, Afghanistan, and the broader Asian region.
- The book is based on extensive field research, including the authors’ travels to China’s western frontiers and their understanding of internal dynamics driving China’s westward expansion.
- Withdrawal of USA:The withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan has left a lasting impact on both Afghanistan’s future and on Asian geopolitics. It has also brought China into focus. This book traces the emergence of China as a key player in Afghanistan and the evolution of China’s Afghan policy especially with respect to its relations with the Taliban.
- Balanced Perspective: The authors are commended for providing a balanced view, avoiding simplistic narratives and instead offering nuanced insights into China’s cautious yet strategic engagement with the Taliban.
- Xinjiang and Security Concerns: It discusses the security issues related to Xinjiang, particularly the threat from the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. Potential Chinese plans to deploy special forces along the China-Afghan border are also examined.
- Impact on India: The book addresses the implications of China’s engagement with the Taliban for India, noting the heightened tension between Islamabad and Kabul due to the ‘all-weather’ alliance between China and Pakistan. This dynamic has significant consequences for India, particularly in relation to Kashmir.
