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Unravelling Beijing’s Deceptive Strategy
Context:
Sun Tzu’s ancient teachings on war emphasise deception, patience, and strategic foresight. These lessons hold relevance in the complex dynamics of India-China relations, where endurance often wanes amidst the relentless pace of modern news cycles.
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- In December 2024, India and China held the 23rd meeting of the Special Representatives (SRs) mechanism between the National Security Advisor and Chinese Foreign Minister.
- This dialogue, occurring after a nearly five-year hiatus, was established in 2003 to address the boundary issue from a political perspective.
- The Chinese Ministry reiterated efforts to reach a “mutually acceptable package solution” based on the 2005 SR accord and emphasised the need for strengthening coordination through the SR framework.
- Despite this diplomatic engagement, China’s actions reflect a calculated ICAD (illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive) strategy, raising doubts about its long-term intentions.
ICAD in Action: China’s Strategic Calculations
- Hydropower Project: China’s ICAD approach is evident in its large hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, which flows into Arunachal Pradesh as the Brahmaputra.
- India has expressed concerns over the project’s impact on downstream nations like Bangladesh.
- Unilateral Actions: Additionally, China’s unilateral actions, including renaming towns in Arunachal Pradesh and publishing maps claiming Indian territory, further underscore its cartographic aggression.
- Beijing’s strategy appears driven by a perception that India is eager to ease tensions due to economic and strategic pressures.
- India, the US, and Strategic Partnerships: Chinese analysts also speculate about a rift in the India-US relationship, citing divergent interests.
- They argue that India’s pursuit of global leadership and refusal to align formally with the US could limit cooperation.
- However, recent developments challenge this narrative.
- In January 2025, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited New Delhi to strengthen the Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership in areas such as technology, defense, clean energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence.
- Washington has also eased export restrictions on Indian scientific institutions, signaling deeper collaboration.
The Border Issue and China’s Long-Term Strategy
- China appears determined to keep the border issue unresolved, using it as leverage to advance its ICAD strategy.
- Beijing’s actions—cloaked in the guise of rapprochement—underscore its broader ambition to counterbalance India’s rise as a regional power.
- By projecting stability while engaging in aggressive tactics, China aims to exploit the power differential and maintain its strategic edge in Asia.
The revival of the SR mechanism is a step toward dialogue, but the road to a stable India-China relationship remains fraught with challenges. To counter Beijing’s ICAD strategy, India must adopt a mix of strategic patience and proactive measures. Strengthening alliances, enhancing economic resilience, and safeguarding territorial integrity are crucial to navigating this complex geopolitical landscape.
